Howes: Will Detroit's Big 3 survive chaos?

To watch this global market correction unfold in real time, to hear its impacts charted daily, to see Detroit's auto shares and sales sink to frightful lows is to ask an unabashedly parochial question: Just how well will General Motors Corp., Ford Motor Co. and Chrysler LLC, their dealer networks and their key suppliers weather this brutal comeuppance? Or will they, too, be overwhelmed by the confluence of external circumstances, too little internal change, too much competition and not enough cash to survive a downturn likely to be longer than first anticipated? If the case of Dick Fuld and Lehman is any indication, we may not get anything resembling an answer -- or much of a warning in this 24/7 world -- until the question has been called and answered by anonymous forces in the credit, equity and consumer markets. For a privately held concern like Chrysler, prospects are even more opaque. Still, the facts are what they are: Sales are tanking, even for alleged powerhouse Toyota Motor Corp., forced to resort to zero-interest financing to bolster its top line. Consumer credit for new cars and trucks is harder to obtain, dampening sales further. The share prices of GM (reaching a low not seen in 54 years) and Ford (trading below $3.50 a share) are sobering. Another fact: Fitch Ratings downgraded Ford and Ford Motor Credit on Monday, saying 'the growing impact of the credit crisis on industry sales volumes, supply chain financial risks, the financial health of dealerships and the capital advantage of transplants' could 'overwhelm' Ford's comparative strength. Dealers are disappearing, victims of declining sales, slipping market share and tight credit that makes financing inventory difficult. A more Darwinian view for the clearly 'over-dealered' Detroit automakers would greet the shakeout positively, essentially a bankruptcy-style move outside federal bankruptcy court. The same could be said about accelerated plant closings, as GM is executing near Dayton; the push to bring new small cars with new, fuel-efficient powertrains to market; the headlong rush into alternative technologies, a strategic push that nevertheless could be undermined by the collapse in oil prices and how consumers respond. It's all happening so fast. Detroit's automakers have taken 30-plus years to get to this point -- a precipice made all the more precarious by the mercilessly swift reordering of a financial system whose lack of confidence in Detroit is exceeded only by its lack of confidence in itself. Daniel Howes' column runs Tuesdays, Thursdays and Fridays. He can be reached at (313) 222-2106 or detnews.com/howes.

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