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Affordable electric cars seen many years away
General Motors Corp's plug-in Chevy Volt and other electric vehicles have generated widespread consumer fervor for cleaner, less fuel-dependent cars, but the high battery cost means it will be years before those cars are affordable to most Americans.
Executives attending the Reuters Autos Summit this week agreed that low-emission electric cars are critical to the future of the U.S. auto market due to sky-high gasoline prices and increased concerns about global warming.
But at roughly $10,000 each, the light, long-lasting lithium-ion batteries key to powering electric cars will make those vehicles prohibitively expensive until production levels are ramped up to the hundreds of thousands.
'It will be more expensive than people expect,' Mike Jackson, chief executive of AutoNation Inc, the largest public auto dealership group, said of the electric cars that will hit the market in the next five years. 'It will be more expensive to make than the manufacturers can really afford, meaning initially they're going to have to limit the volumes.'
GM's plug-in Chevrolet Volt, slated to hit showrooms in late 2010, is among of the biggest efforts to bring an electric car to the mass market. The Volt is expected to be able to go 40 miles on a single charge before dipping into its gas tank.
But GM said on Tuesday that it will only produce 10,000 Volts in its first year of production, eventually increasing that to about 60,000. GM has not said how much the Volt will cost, but plug-ins are expected to carry a premium of around $10,000, compared with a premium on hybrid electric cars of between $3,000 and $5,000.
The cost of plug-in technology would drop 'significantly' if production volume reaches 100,000 cars a year, Prabhakar Patil, chief executive of battery maker Compact Power, said at the Summit. The unit of South Korea's LG Chem Ltd is in the running to supply the Volt's T-shaped battery, which weighs about 400 pounds and is roughly six feet long.
'It typically takes about 20 years for a new technology to become mainstream,' Patil said. As an example, he pointed to the growth of hybrid-electric cars, which have been on the market for 12 years and still make up a small segment of U.S. auto sales.
Executives attending the Reuters Autos Summit this week agreed that low-emission electric cars are critical to the future of the U.S. auto market due to sky-high gasoline prices and increased concerns about global warming.
But at roughly $10,000 each, the light, long-lasting lithium-ion batteries key to powering electric cars will make those vehicles prohibitively expensive until production levels are ramped up to the hundreds of thousands.
'It will be more expensive than people expect,' Mike Jackson, chief executive of AutoNation Inc, the largest public auto dealership group, said of the electric cars that will hit the market in the next five years. 'It will be more expensive to make than the manufacturers can really afford, meaning initially they're going to have to limit the volumes.'
GM's plug-in Chevrolet Volt, slated to hit showrooms in late 2010, is among of the biggest efforts to bring an electric car to the mass market. The Volt is expected to be able to go 40 miles on a single charge before dipping into its gas tank.
But GM said on Tuesday that it will only produce 10,000 Volts in its first year of production, eventually increasing that to about 60,000. GM has not said how much the Volt will cost, but plug-ins are expected to carry a premium of around $10,000, compared with a premium on hybrid electric cars of between $3,000 and $5,000.
The cost of plug-in technology would drop 'significantly' if production volume reaches 100,000 cars a year, Prabhakar Patil, chief executive of battery maker Compact Power, said at the Summit. The unit of South Korea's LG Chem Ltd is in the running to supply the Volt's T-shaped battery, which weighs about 400 pounds and is roughly six feet long.
'It typically takes about 20 years for a new technology to become mainstream,' Patil said. As an example, he pointed to the growth of hybrid-electric cars, which have been on the market for 12 years and still make up a small segment of U.S. auto sales.
