Auto supplier losses continue to mount

The bad news continued to pile up for auto suppliers this week with several of the companies reporting sizable quarterly losses and steep sales drops as a result of continued vehicle production cuts at automakers both in the U.S. and abroad.

In addition, the suppliers say they don't expect conditions to improve anytime soon, prompting some industry observers to question the ability of some of them to survive the current economic downturn.

American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings Inc., Lear Corp., Gentex Corp. and Autoliv Inc. all reported fourth-quarter losses. Johnson Controls Inc., which makes both automotive and building systems, said earlier this month that it posted a a loss for its fiscal first quarter.

Richard E. Dauch, American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings Inc.'s co-founder, chairman and chief executive, called 2008 "the year from hell" and projected a tough 2009 for the auto industry as a whole.

American Axle said Friday that it posted a $112.1 million loss for the fourth quarter and a $1.22 billion loss for the year. Excluding restructuring and other charges, the company's loss was still significantly larger than Wall Street expected.

Sales fell 33 percent for the quarter, as key customers such as General Motors Corp., which still accounts for about three quarters of the company's sales total, slashed orders in response to the overall drop in consumer demand coupled with a shift away from the light trucks and SUVs that most of those parts went into.

At the same time, the Detroit-based company, which is in the midst of its own massive restructuring plan, has seen its share price wither to a fraction of what it once was, losing 94 percent of its value since hitting its 12-month peak of $25 in May.

Earlier this week, an analyst for KDP Investment Advisors Inc. singled out American Axle as one of the auto suppliers that could be forced to file for bankruptcy protection within the next year.

"At today's projected rate of capacity utilization, despite management's efforts to remain upbeat at recent conferences, we believe Axle's days outside of Chapter 11 protection are numbered," Kip Penniman Jr. wrote in a Monday note to investors.

"Unfortunately, we expect management's best efforts to be overwhelmed by dire economic trends that appear to be intensifying in the first and second quarters of this year."

American Axle Chief Financial Officer Mike Simonte dismissed the comments and other analyst speculation as "uninformed opinions," saying that the company does not have a bankruptcy filing in the works.

"There are big risks in our situation. We're highly dependent on GM and Chrysler," Simonte said in an interview Friday. "We understand the risk, we've quantified the risk and we know there are things we can't control.

"We're more focused on our recovery and return to profitability than any downside scenarios."

The bankruptcy speculation hasn't been limited to American Axle. Lear said Thursday that it swung to a $688.2 loss on a 33 percent drop in sales.

The Southfield, Mich.-based company, which makes automotive seating, electrical distribution systems and electronics products, cited a number of impairment and restructuring charges, along with the drop in North American vehicle production.

Lear also said that it broke debt agreements after choosing not to pay back $1.2 billion in borrowings last year, and as a result will seek a long-term amendment to its credit facility.

Baird's David Leiker said in a note to investors that Lear must amend the debt agreement or a bankruptcy protection filing will be the likely outcome. He added that even if the company is able to renegotiate the agreement, he doesn't expect it to return to profitability on a full-year basis until 2012.

On Friday, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services cut its non-investment grade corporate credit rating for Lear Corp. to "CCC+" from "B-," saying it expects Lear's finances to continue to weaken this year.

"In our view, cash balances alone do not eliminate the risk of bankruptcy or financial restructuring, given the industry downturn," S&P Credit Analyst Lawrence Orlowski said in a statement.

"We believe Lear's credit measures will worsen substantially, primarily as a result of a sharp fall-off in global auto production."