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Commentary: Forging new path will be rough road for Detroit automakers
'If restructuring cannot be accomplished outside of bankruptcy,' Bush said, 'the loans will provide time for companies to make the legal and financial preparations necessary for an orderly Chapter 11 process that offers a better prospect of long-term success.' Which means, here in the Detroit Bubble, that news of a federal lifeline isn't the end of a lengthening nightmare. It's the beginning of a months-long, harrowing workout process that will make the three years-plus bankruptcy of Delphi Corp. look and feel like the warm up it has proven to be. At least three GM brands -- Saturn, Saab and Hummer -- are endangered, affecting hundreds of dealers. Wages and benefits of UAW members will be renegotiated. More than 60 percent of GM's outstanding debt is expected to be exchanged for equity, a swap that would require bondholders to assess the likelihood that a skinnier GM can avoid a bankruptcy proceeding that would wipe out its equity value. 'Now the real work begins,' says John Casesa, managing director of the Casesa Shapiro Group, an automotive consulting firm in New York. 'Now there's going to be a slugfest. Time is very costly to these companies. Their customers are defecting in droves.' Playing to Team ObamaConfidence in the ability of GM and Chrysler to reverse their slides -- separately or together in some form of tie-up -- is likely to remain low until some tangible progress is obvious in their draconian workouts. Yet, an under-appreciated fact of life in the Detroit Bubble is that leaders of its companies and unions can achieve revolutionary change when they absolutely have to. Right now, they absolutely have to, lest bankruptcy dismember the automakers and undermine the union's promise to past, current and would-be members. Even worse: Big Three communities and residents would pay their own prices because CEOs and union bosses, politicians and bankers, played chicken with other people's livelihoods and lost anyway. Skeptics will see too much wiggle in the Bush bailout -- it can be reworked by Team Obama, tweaked by new legislation from the new Congress with stronger Democratic (i.e., union-friendly) majorities, larded with the fuel-economy, alternative technology and emissions mandates that polluted the House bill but failed to become law. All possible, I suppose. Except that walking back the Bush requirements -- patterned after the core principles of the House and tougher Senate versions -- likely wouldn't play well with bailout-weary Americans, even if it would score points at Solidarity House and among the Democratic contributors on Wall Street. UAW President Ron Gettelfinger, in a statement, says the union intends to push the Obama White House to remove 'unfair conditions singling out workers.' Fine, except that Gettelfinger already agreed to bring autoworker wages and benefits in line by 2011; the only dispute is the year, mostly because doing so next year would require members to vote -- a vote UAW leaders are not sure they could win, despite the historically dire circumstances. How could a President Obama reverse course and say, 'Nah, you really don't need to be that competitive.' Not going to happen, not in this economic environment. And not in a new Congress whose generalized support for organized labor is outstripped by its intent to use this crisis to a) refashion the auto industry on its 'green' terms and b) take credit for saving American jobs. Is this Detroit's last stand?A week ago, after Senate Republicans blocked the auto bailout bill, the finger pointing from Gettelfinger and Sen. Bob Corker of Tennessee looked like yet one more example of a Detroit institution -- the UAW, in this case -- again kicking the proverbial can down the road. Something like this: The union knows Bush'll bail 'em out, cuz Treasury and Vice President Cheney have signaled as much. The union figures it'll get a better deal from Obama, except for the inconvenient fact that he ranks among the most outspoken in demanding that Detroit get competitive -- with its products, its operations and the way it looks at a changing world. There are no more cans to kick. This is a last stand for GM, the UAW and what's left of Chrysler, a final chance to prove there really are savvy, realistic leaders beneath the sheet metal and weak balance sheets. Or, they can prove the skeptics right, that 'Detroit can't do it,' that bankruptcy is the only hope of extracting value from companies that have routinely destroyed it and demanded more. In a news conference, GM Chairman Rick Wagoner called Bush's lifeline a 'financial bridge to our nation's auto industry and our nation's economy.' He said GM's congressionally mandated plan, delivered Dec. 2, is a 'blueprint for a new General Motors' whose goal is to 'reinvent our company ... and lead an economic recovery in America.' Is that all? The Detroit Bubble has three months to match reality with soaring new rhetoric -- and bury the excuses, denial and bad habits that have been killing this business for more than a generation. Daniel Howes' column typically runs Tuesdays, Thursdays and Fridays. He can be reached at (313) 222-2106, [email protected] or detnews.com/howes.