Ahhh....009 you missed one critical issue. Here in the US, we just started switching to Winter Standards for fuel. So of course fuel would go down this time of year. However I would be cautious to listen to anything the oil speculators talk about. Remember these are the people who less than 3 years ago said oil wouldn't go above $40 a barrel.Of course I do agree with point 1. Points 2,3 and 4 could be right...however in my mind are a bit speculative. World oil use has not decreased, People driving less (short term) will have very little impact on oil price. Petrochemicals, Jet A fuel and Heating fuel are where the largest impacts will occur. With colder weather already beginning to hit the north and the mountainous regions, the need for heating fuel will likly rise dramatically in the next few weeks even if the demand for auto fuel dosent. This will begin to tax the refineries we currently have in place and some of the ones we bring back online.These are some of the factors that need to be looked at as well when determining what fuel prices will be.