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Analyst: Big 3 may lose $5.6B
Consumers have been buying fewer trucks from General Motors Corp., Ford Motor Co. and other automakers because of soaring gasoline prices. Vehicle manufacturers and suppliers get smaller margins from fuel-efficient cars, Merlis said. Automotive parts makers stand to lose about $1 billion annually due to the shift among buyers, he said. That's because like the automakers their profit margin on parts for larger vehicles is greater than that for small cars. GM and Ford have lost billions already this year from the shift in consumer attitudes and move away from trucks and SUVs. Ford posted a record quarterly loss of $8.7 billion in the second quarter. GM lost $15.5 billion. Ford is dealing with the shift to cars by bringing six fuel-efficient European models to the United States by 2012, Sue Cischke, vice president of sustainability, environment and safety engineering at Ford, said at the conference. GM is preparing for sustained demand in smaller vehicles, with cars or crossovers making up 18 of the automaker's next 19 vehicle introductions, GM Chief Economist Mustafa Mohatarem said. Fluctuations in the price of oil, along with a weak housing market, will help determine how many vehicles are sold in the United States next year, Mohatarem said. If oil prices are at $130 to $150 a barrel in 2009 and a recovery in the housing market has begun, about 14.5 million vehicles will be sold in the United States, he said. With oil at about $100 a barrel under the same conditions, automakers could sell 15.5 million cars, he said. The industry's annualized selling rate for July was 12.6 million vehicles, the lowest since April 1992, according to Autodata. Sales in 2007 were 16.1 million.